Local evidence report

paper-live-20260901T171005Z

Generated 2026-09-01T17:10:52.316959+00:00

Trading disabledP4 live ready falseAuth endpoint calls 0Forbidden endpoint calls 0

Run state

Summary

Markets0

Opportunities0

Diagnostics25

Accepted0

Rejected0

Wait0

Simulated orders0

Demo cash1000

Demo equity1000

Demo realized PnL0

Demo open PnL0

Execution Fidelity Vwap Premium0

Execution Fidelity Max Premium0

Execution Fidelity Total Premium Paid0

Execution Fidelity Total Fees0

Estimated PnL0

Drawdown0

Lower confidence bound0

Auth endpoint calls0

Daily decision gate

Daily Ops

OBSERVE

Score40

Live Trading AllowedFalse

Simulated Entries0

Estimated Pnl0

Drawdown0

Unknown Resolution Rate0

Execution Fidelity Vwap Premium0

Statistical Lower Confidence Bound0

Live locklive_requires_p4_owner_approval_and_one_time_order_gate

Blockersno_simulated_entries, non_positive_estimated_pnl, execution_fidelity_insufficient, statistical_evidence_insufficient

Positive signalstransport_safety_clean, drawdown_within_limit, unknown_resolution_rate_within_limit

Paper portfolio

Demo Account

paper_demo

Starting balance1000

Cash balance1000

Equity1000

Realized PnL0

Open PnL0

Open Position Value0

Total staked0

Total fees0

Open positions0

Resolved positions0

Real-like paper execution

Execution Fidelity

real_order_book_simulation

Order Count0

Filled Count0

Pending Count0

Vwap Premium0

Max Premium0

Total Premium Paid0

Total fees0

Total Shares0

Blockersnone

Control Center

Strategy Lab

4 variants

AResearch only

Winner Tape

Control

polymarket_winning_side

Sample0

Accepted0

Rejected0

LCB0

BResearch only

Reference Price

Control

external_price_confirms_threshold

Sample0

Accepted0

Rejected0

LCB0

CNeeds sample

Confluence EV

Primary

reference_price_plus_orderbook_plus_ev

Sample0

Accepted0

Rejected0

LCB0

DResearch only

Wallet Overlay

Research

confluence_ev_plus_profitable_wallet_context

Sample0

Accepted0

Rejected0

LCB0

Paper-only run plan

Daily Config

Local export

Simulated order USDTarget price lowerTarget price upperFinal window minutesMax spreadMin executable depth USDMin net EV per shareSnapshot max age secondsReference max age secondsMax marketsMax tokensFinal window poll seconds

Strategy variantsABCD

Watched wallets

Trading enabled: falseP4 live ready: falseAuth endpoint calls: 0Forbidden endpoint calls: 0

Run plan previewdigest pending

Data API research

Wallet Intelligence

Research only

Tracked wallets0

Sample size0

Entry signalfalse

Safety boundary

Source

Source DBvar/paper-live/paper-live-20260901t171005z/paper.sqlite

Snapshot createdFalse

Snapshot path

SQLite sidecars[]

Paper-live report loadedTrue

Paper-live reportreports/paper-live/paper-live-20260901t171005z.json

Paper-live

Market Diagnostics

25 rows

Market	Decision	Stage	Reason	Oracle	Threshold	Rule cutoff	Question	Raw payload hash
3903729	unknown	time-window	outside_final_window	binance	68000	2026-09-02T16:00:00+00:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 2?	`948cd870e84f695d2ffa81bc0ddcec4cb40c0085ad87550e7dc2f0e486d4790e`
3903731	unknown	time-window	outside_final_window	binance	70000	2026-09-02T16:00:00+00:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 2?	`4c1cd6b44e9e8fd80c1edd12d8cff27eda02e6fab1377ca3c43098b3f09e2d82`
3903734	unknown	time-window	outside_final_window	binance	72000	2026-09-02T16:00:00+00:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 2?	`1e38f2150d2bb23ad463c487ad127eb02b82666c313b9163d056ea49dfd56c0c`
3903736	unknown	time-window	outside_final_window	binance	74000	2026-09-02T16:00:00+00:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 2?	`c53612545cd936c634c32b9424609be9919ad8c136e213a1980c6fb8f3167f5d`
3903737	unknown	time-window	outside_final_window	binance	76000	2026-09-02T16:00:00+00:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 2?	`32b684e5dc0052eb40d8d50ca0d3bb08818d31039051daed0acdf030cf30e7ae`
3903740	unknown	time-window	outside_final_window	binance	78000	2026-09-02T16:00:00+00:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 2?	`47e7896f55516881fc814036eb802d6fcd68ffe649228ad0666f2268e6e07ce7`
3903742	unknown	time-window	outside_final_window	binance	80000	2026-09-02T16:00:00+00:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 2?	`f2c792044cbee2a204bd6ce19cf157fd1333292bbc3526d7e8e98f3e5cb9c57c`
3903745	unknown	time-window	outside_final_window	binance	82000	2026-09-02T16:00:00+00:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 2?	`2451947d5979ad74c17dd38ca7cca9cf23cdb4c7da0ca841c96253b8c5971c17`
3903747	unknown	time-window	outside_final_window	binance	84000	2026-09-02T16:00:00+00:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 2?	`7585bc584a836be52cb619a7925708b0955c25e8122a0d1a4aad84d72a1893a2`
3903749	unknown	time-window	outside_final_window	binance	86000	2026-09-02T16:00:00+00:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 2?	`4fd8ca9719a92c09d93b1a1db342caf30691b7de4d0774a29093a391c1bc8599`
3903751	unknown	time-window	outside_final_window	binance	88000	2026-09-02T16:00:00+00:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 2?	`289cd8e34ce7ddde21c440327d221371e9e053eba74c305a79723c73876da6ad`
3932593	unknown	time-window	outside_final_window	binance	70000	2026-09-03T16:00:00+00:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 3?	`d5ecceed24a42608512aaa96996c99314975aced4b3915e482efd7878b551c53`
3932594	unknown	time-window	outside_final_window	binance	72000	2026-09-03T16:00:00+00:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 3?	`aab979ce044d8d330125fdc5fdc662051f06a4026723be67ee3a2aee9049b495`
3932596	unknown	time-window	outside_final_window	binance	74000	2026-09-03T16:00:00+00:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 3?	`dc5db6464d7479bde3c1283d86957725b0a7dc8f510b677d4b34feba7c618184`
3932599	unknown	time-window	outside_final_window	binance	76000	2026-09-03T16:00:00+00:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 3?	`70960c88a2a284cfd07dfa1fa3a91f8c6c8cbc77e8450b266ece46118c1d38b9`
3932602	unknown	time-window	outside_final_window	binance	78000	2026-09-03T16:00:00+00:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 3?	`5ae16ed7a48fe1de7c97c63e5b3a60f5b3d14d6265ab2cdff27625635683a51b`
3932604	unknown	time-window	outside_final_window	binance	80000	2026-09-03T16:00:00+00:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 3?	`a82db45616205b82698eeba857895c5adcb3fc17b5268d93fcacaf38a5e015b4`
3932608	unknown	time-window	outside_final_window	binance	82000	2026-09-03T16:00:00+00:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 3?	`8bdd8e6b3656804bed4d241c3ab3bf3dd2c74bc6a3b8e4b658c34163f042e052`
3932610	unknown	time-window	outside_final_window	binance	84000	2026-09-03T16:00:00+00:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 3?	`6b9cd896c1b8905fb665b619d67dd784547b45b21b527e3e39a8f59973142f71`
3932612	unknown	time-window	outside_final_window	binance	86000	2026-09-03T16:00:00+00:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 3?	`2f9b338ec9ead4436725eab049f95bb6da02734e160d78b2cd79745608dc0d04`
3932614	unknown	time-window	outside_final_window	binance	88000	2026-09-03T16:00:00+00:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 3?	`61387c759811f116a0390b62e9e36cabc086f62ab0391153b74386537544e9a8`
3932616	unknown	time-window	outside_final_window	binance	90000	2026-09-03T16:00:00+00:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on September 3?	`872fe9333372997232d3c653698aa3ac4a57483762afee6104acc41f1ddb1c83`
3953586	unknown	time-window	outside_final_window	binance	68000	2026-09-04T16:00:00+00:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 4?	`39d50d502e61b34ed6de73af150478dc011c0ad379dd53d815d8b5aa0eb6808f`
3953588	unknown	time-window	outside_final_window	binance	70000	2026-09-04T16:00:00+00:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 4?	`df9d563c59cb7959a6b381c352ed971df20ae4a7820c6e17b9ce856c5a1c0e5d`
3953590	unknown	time-window	outside_final_window	binance	72000	2026-09-04T16:00:00+00:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 4?	`2999b82844b0d79e196cd7009fa36cf9de3c44f0aa05ac0483c96b1f5f71590c`

SQLite ledgers

Markets

0 rows

No market rows persisted.

Execution ledger

Decisions

0 rows

No decisions persisted.

Traceability

Snapshot Drill-Down

No snapshots to inspect.